Measles / HFMD outbreaks [short]
হাম, এইচএফএমডি
Public health
state
watch
score
22.1
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: -4151.47 to 7147.65 (80% interval, coverage validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| who measles cases bgd | 247.00 | - | 1.00 | 2024-12-31 |
Notes
measles_hfmd: Measles / HFMD outbreaks (reported measles cases per year) 247 (as of 2024-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. WHO measles elimination standard: <1 confirmed case per million population/year (used consistently across WHO regions and PAHO). WHO/WHA 2010 control milestone: <5 cases per million/year. Bands translated to absolute case counts for Banglad Forecast (damped_ets, 50 obs): 1,025 in +3 steps; 80% interval [-4,151, 7,148] (coverage validated at 85%). P(crosses the warning line within +3) = 7% Interval coverage validated; these are band-crossing likelihoods of the indicator against its benchmark line, not a validated crisis probability.