Inflation regime [short]
মূল্যস্ফীতি ব্যবস্থা
Macro-financial
state
warning
score
72.2
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 8.92 to 13.47 (80% interval, coverage validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI inflation (YoY) | 10.5% | - | 1.00 | 2024-12-31 |
Notes
inflation_regime: CPI inflation (year on year) 10.5% (as of 2024-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. Bands anchored to the Bangladesh Bank medium-term inflation target (about 5.5 to 6 percent). Forecast (naive, 25 obs): 10.5% in +3 steps; 80% interval [8.9%, 13.5%] (coverage validated at 71%). P(crosses the warning line within +3) = 88% Interval coverage validated; these are band-crossing likelihoods of the indicator against its benchmark line, not a validated crisis probability.