Debt service rising [short]
ঋণ পরিশোধ চাপ
Macro-financial
state
warning
score
63.8
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 13.52 to 20.07 (indicative range, interval coverage not validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wb dt tds dect ex zs | 15.77 | - | 1.00 | 2024-12-31 |
Notes
debt_service: Debt service rising (% of exports of goods, services, and primary income) 15.8% (as of 2024-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (LIC DSF, revised 2018): debt-service-to-exports indicative thresholds are 10% (weak capacity), 15% (medium capacity), and 21% (strong capacity). Bangladesh is classified Forecast (local_level, 25 obs): 15.4% in +3 steps; indicative range [13.5%, 20.1%] (interval coverage not validated, measured 58%). median trend reaches the warning line in about +1 step(s) Indicative trajectory, not a validated crisis probability.