Aging shock [short]
বার্ধক্য চাপ
Demography
state
calm
score
16.7
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 6.98 to 7.14 (indicative range, interval coverage not validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wb sp pop 65up to zs | 6.50 | - | 1.00 | 2024-12-31 |
Notes
aging_shock: Aging shock (% of total population aged 65 and above) 6.5% (as of 2024-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. UN standard demographic aging classification (UN Population Division / UNFPA): 'aging society' = >7% aged 65+; 'aged society' = >14% aged 65+; 'super-aged society' = >20% aged 65+. Widely adopted by WHO, OECD, and national statistical agenc Forecast (local_linear_trend, 25 obs): 7.1% in +3 steps; indicative range [7.0%, 7.1%] (interval coverage not validated, measured 27%). Indicative trajectory, not a validated crisis probability.