ACC weakness [short]
দুর্নীতি দমন কমিশন দুর্বলতা
Governance
state
elevated
score
40.0
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 2.10 to 2.50 (indicative range, interval coverage not validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wb iq cpa tran xq | 2.50 | - | 1.00 | 2024-12-31 |
Notes
acc_weakness: ACC weakness (score (1-6, 6=best)) 2.5 (as of 2024-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. World Bank CPIA criteria define anchored score levels on a 1-6 scale: 1=very weak, 2=weak, 3=modest (below average IDA performance), 4=adequate, 5=strong, 6=very strong. IDA-eligible Sub-Saharan Africa average CPIA score 2024 = 3.1, making Forecast (naive, 20 obs): 2.5 in +3 steps; indicative range [2.1, 2.5] (interval coverage not validated, measured 100%). Indicative trajectory, not a validated crisis probability.