Next steps
Policy sandbox · CGE
Current result
10% US tariff on Bangladeshi textile/RMG exports
Bangladesh joins RCEP: tariff reductions with NEA, SEA, CHN, IND
Loss of EU EBA preferences and other LDC tariff benefits
Exogenous productivity improvement in a specific country/sector
Energy price spike + trade cost increase + MNA demand shock
Oil +40%, LNG +50% price shock, no trade disruption
Freight cost +5% on MNA/Suez routes, EU/US demand -5%
Interpretation
Each definition changes a documented model input. A completed run estimates the equilibrium response relative to the calibrated baseline; it does not assign a probability to the scenario.
Method
Scenarios are solved with a GTAP-type CGE calibrated to Bangladesh, returning welfare and trade effects. Results are computed server-side from the calibrated dataset and the published trade elasticities.
Source: BDPolicyLab CGE calibration and published trade elasticities