Climate & Disaster

Bottom Line

Bangladesh ranks #7 on the Global Climate Risk Index while contributing only 0.24% of global CO2. Annual loss and damage of 2.0 billion USD/year already exceeds adaptation spending of 1.0 billion USD/year, creating a structural finance deficit of 1.0 billion USD that widens each year. Three decisions in the next budget cycle will determine whether the country absorbs or amplifies that gap: accelerating Delta Plan 2100 coastal embankment upgrades, converting the Loss and Damage Fund advocacy position into a concrete financing proposal, and mandating renewable procurement to close the -3.0 percentage-point gap to the NDC target.

Emissions Profile: A Climate Justice Case Study

At 0.72 t CO2 per person, Bangladesh emits 15% of the global average of 4.7 t (WB 2022), one-thirtieth of the United States (15.5 t), and one-fourteenth of China (7.4 t). Total national emissions of 89.0 Mt represent 0.24% of global CO2 output. The cumulative historical contribution since industrialization is less than what the United States emits in one year.

Methane at 120.0 Mt CO2-eq is the second material emission stream. The source is not discretionary: rice paddy anaerobic decomposition and livestock are the metabolic cost of feeding 170 million people in a densely populated agrarian economy. Alternate wetting and drying (AWD) can cut paddy methane 30-50%, but field deployment requires extension services and investment that compete with other adaptation priorities.

Renewable energy at 25.0% of the energy mix is the most acute policy vulnerability. The 2021 NDC unconditional target of 22% emissions reduction cannot be met while natural gas accounts for approximately 60% of generation and domestic reserves deplete. The gap to target is -3.0 percentage points. India crossed 12% renewable share through competitive solar auction programmes; Bangladesh's Solar Home Systems programme (6 million units deployed) demonstrates institutional readiness to scale, but utility-scale procurement has stalled.

Physical Exposure: The Structural Vulnerability

Bangladesh sits almost entirely on the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta at 1,319 per sq km, concentrating enormous economic value in zones of extreme physical exposure.

Sea level rise in the Bay of Bengal runs at 3.5 mm/year, compounded by land subsidence of 3-18 mm/year from sediment compaction and groundwater extraction. The effective relative sea level rise is among the highest globally. Under IPCC SSP5-8.5, a one-metre rise by 2100 would permanently submerge approximately 17% of Bangladesh's land area, eliminating productive agricultural districts and urban centres including Khulna, Barisal, and parts of Chattogram.

Cyclone preparedness is a verifiable global success story. Cyclone Bhola (1970) killed 300,000 to 500,000 people; Cyclone Sidr (2007, Category 4) killed approximately 3,400; Cyclone Amphan (2020) killed 26 in Bangladesh. That 100-fold mortality reduction was achieved through 4,000 concrete shelters and the volunteer Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP). The institutional architecture works. The risk is that it becomes underfunded as the frequency of Category 4-5 events accelerates under warming.

Annual flood exposure averages 20% of territory. Mega-floods in 1998, 2004, and 2017 inundated 50-70% of the country. Flash floods in the northeast haor wetlands and drought in the Barind tract represent distinct extremes affecting separate agricultural systems with no shared adaptation solution.

Adaptation Finance: The Structural Deficit

Base case: adaptation spending holds at 1.0 billion USD/year while loss and damage runs at 2.0 billion USD/year, sustaining a finance deficit of 1.0 billion USD annually. The Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund has disbursed over $400 million since 2010, demonstrating domestic programming capacity. Access to the Green Climate Fund remains constrained by application complexity and implementation entity capacity gaps.

Risk case: if sea level rise accelerates to the upper SSP5-8.5 bound and the Loss and Damage Fund remains undercapitalized (initial pledges of approximately $700 million globally against $400 billion in annual developing-country losses), the deficit compounds. An estimated 7.0 million internal climate migrants have already been displaced, many to Dhaka informal settlements where waterlogging and heat stress create secondary exposure. At 300,000-400,000 arrivals per year, the megacity absorption cost is not captured in the current adaptation spending figure.

Land, Sundarbans, and Agricultural Viability

Forest cover at 14.5% is 2.5 pp below the 17% Aichi Biodiversity Target. The Sundarbans (6,017 sq km) is the world's largest contiguous mangrove forest. It attenuates coastal storm surge, reducing cyclone damage in adjacent districts by an estimated 20-30%, and supports fishery livelihoods for millions. IPCC projects that a 45 cm sea level rise would permanently inundate 17% of the Sundarbans, degrading this natural infrastructure directly. No engineered substitute exists at comparable cost.

Arable land at 60.6% faces three compounding pressures: saltwater intrusion (approximately 1.02 million hectares affected, with the saline front advanced 100+ km inland over two decades, reducing rice yields 15-25% in affected districts); riverbank erosion (consuming 10,000-15,000 hectares/year); and Dhaka metropolitan expansion. As salinity continues advancing, domestic rice production capacity contracts under a food security system that has historically depended on it.

Air Quality: The Hidden Cost

Dhaka's annual PM2.5 of 77.1 ug/m3 is 15x the WHO guideline of 5 ug/m3. Air pollution causes an estimated 80,000/year of premature deaths and costs 3.9% of GDP (World Bank 2022). The dominant point source is approximately 7,000 brick kilns operating with outdated technology. Conversion to Hoffman, tunnel, or zigzag kilns could cut emissions 40-60% but requires both regulatory enforcement and kiln-owner financing. Vehicle fleet age, industrial stack emissions, construction dust, and transboundary crop-burning contribute additional load. Urban population at 32.7% and growing at approximately 3% per year means Dhaka's exposure footprint expands faster than any current air quality programme addresses.

Scenario Analysis: Base Case vs. Accelerated Risk

Both scenarios require the same first-order policy responses; the risk case collapses the implementation timeline from decades to years.

Recommendations: Three Decisions That Matter

1. Front-load Delta Plan 2100 coastal embankment upgrades. The $37 billion, 30-year plan is the only integrated framework for flood defence, freshwater retention, and salinity management at national scale. Immediate priority: the 5,017 km coastal embankment system, most segments built in the 1960s-1980s below current sea level design standards. Rehabilitate the highest-exposure polders first. Combine engineered defences with mangrove restoration as cost-effective bio-shields. Every year of delay raises reconstruction cost and reduces the window before SLR renders certain embankments non-viable.

2. Convert Loss and Damage Fund advocacy into a financing architecture proposal. Bangladesh's moral standing as a low-emitting, high-vulnerability nation is the country's most valuable climate diplomatic asset. The COP27 win establishing the fund is not operationally meaningful at current capitalization. Bangladesh should lead a coalition proposing specific levy mechanisms (fossil fuel extraction royalties at source, international shipping emissions charges, financial transaction taxes on fossil fuel traders) sized to match actual loss and damage, not symbolic pledges.

3. Mandate utility-scale renewable procurement to close the NDC gap. The -3.0 percentage-point gap between current renewable share (25.0%) and the unconditional NDC target (22%) does not close through rooftop solar alone. A competitive procurement programme for utility-scale wind and solar, backed by Power Purchase Agreement guarantees and accelerated grid connection, is the instrument that peers (India, Vietnam) have used to move the renewable share figure materially. Brick kiln conversion, with enforcement, addresses both the air quality cost (3.9% of GDP) and a meaningful fraction of industrial emissions simultaneously.

Sources: World Bank WDI 2022-2023, Global Climate Risk Index (Germanwatch 2024), IPCC AR6, ND-GAIN, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, CEGIS, Bangladesh Water Development Board, MoEFCC, IOM Migration Data Portal, IHME GBD 2019.