Two thirds of the gas is gone and the grid is built for gas

Bangladesh 2036, chapter 6 of 10. Contents, sources and the five numbers.

Two thirds of the gas is gone and the grid is built for gas

Bangladesh built its industrial base on cheap domestic gas. The gas is running out and the replacement is imported.

Recoverable reserves are 29,737 billion cubic feet, cumulative production is 21,082, and 8,655 remain, 29.1 percent. Dry gas production peaked at 981.8 billion cubic feet in 2017 and was 711.4 in 2024, while consumption was 955.2, so imports of 243.8 billion cubic feet covered a quarter of demand. At the 2024 domestic rate of about 738 billion cubic feet a year, the remaining base runs under twelve years. Bibiyana alone produces 1,009 of the 2,023 million cubic feet a day of domestic output, 49.9 percent, and has 1,667 billion cubic feet remaining against 7,666 recoverable, under five years at its current rate. One field, past halfway, is half the country's gas.

A single field supplying half of domestic gas with under five years of reserves at current rates is the most concentrated physical risk in the Bangladeshi economy.

The generation mix has already turned. Gas fell from 92.46 percent of electricity generation in 2010 to 64.29 percent in 2025, while coal rose from 1.69 percent in 2015 to 21.51 percent in 2025. Solar is 1.51 percent and wind is nothing; all renewables are 2.14 percent. Net electricity imports were 3.38 terawatt hours in 2015 and 14.66 in 2025, 12.4 percent of the 118.06 terawatt hours of demand. Demand grew 5.1 percent a year from 2020 to 2025, which doubles it in about fifteen years.

Mean VIIRS night light radiance over Bangladesh rose from 0.383 in 2014 to 0.921 in 2024, a 141 percent increase, which is the electrification success and the demand problem in one image.

The capacity is built and it is not being used. Installed capacity including captive and renewables reached 28,134 megawatts by June 2023, from 4,942 megawatts in 2009, across 152 plants against 27. Maximum demand in FY23 was 17,100 megawatts and maximum served was 15,648, so installed capacity was 1.80 times peak served. Plant capacity utilisation was 41 percent. Energy not served was 3,818 million kilowatt hours in FY23 against 84 million in FY22, a factor of forty five. BPDB ran an operating loss of 6,131 crore BDT and a loss before tax of 9,062 crore in FY23, with payables at 192.7 days. Electrification is complete and per capita generation reached 517.89 kilowatt hours in FY23 from 173.48 in FY09.

Bangladesh has almost twice the capacity it can serve at peak and the worst load shedding in its recent record in the same year, because the constraint is fuel and cash, not megawatts.

Capacity payments are the mechanism that turns a fuel shortage into a fiscal one. North West Power Generation paid 2,062.77 crore BDT in capacity charges in FY25 against 1,705.00 crore in energy charges, and its power purchase agreement prices capacity payments on foreign loans at the spot rate of the relevant currency. Every taka of depreciation raises the capacity bill on plants that are not generating.

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Sources for every figure in this chapter are listed on the contents page and in the series source ledger.