Bangladesh Blue Economy Analysis
Maritime Resources, Fisheries, and the Bay of Bengal
BDPolicyLab · 2026-06-15
Bangladesh controls a 118,813 sq km Bay of Bengal EEZ, equivalent to roughly 80% of its land area, yet the entire fisheries sector contributed only 2.53% of GDP in FY24 and just 8 of 26 offshore gas blocks have been explored. The maritime endowment, secured through the 2012 Myanmar ITLOS judgment (Case No. 16) and the 2014 India UNCLOS Annex VII arbitral award, is the country's largest underdeveloped economic frontier. The thesis of this brief is that the binding constraint is institutional, not geological: with no maritime spatial planning law, no deep-sea fishing fleet at scale, and no commissioned offshore wind, legislation and contract design, not new surveys, are the first-order moves. If that reading is wrong, a successful offshore licensing round on unchanged fiscal terms would prove it. The clock is set by LDC graduation on November 24, 2026, which begins eroding the duty-free edge on the seafood export base. This brief sets out what to legislate, finance, and build, with owner-assigned actions and success signals, to convert the endowment into output before that edge closes.
Key findings
- EEZ unlocks 118,813 sq km of sovereign maritime rights. Two rulings, not one court, secured the zone: the 2012 ITLOS judgment against Myanmar (Case No. 16, 14 March 2012) and the 2014 UNCLOS Annex VII arbitral award against India (7 July 2014, administered by the Permanent Court of Arbitration). Together they gave Bangladesh full sovereign rights over the Bay of Bengal EEZ, enabling offshore fisheries, energy exploration, and blue carbon accounting. (Source: ITLOS Case No. 16, 2012; UNCLOS Annex VII Tribunal / PCA, 2014.)
- Fisheries sector: 2.53% of GDP and 22.26% of agricultural GDP in FY24. The total fisheries sector (marine plus inland) contributed 2.53% of national GDP and 22.26% of agricultural GDP in FY24; marine capture is roughly 41% of fish production, so the marine share alone is far smaller. About 12% of the population, over 17 million people, depend on the sector. Twenty-eight longliner vessels have been approved to expand deep-sea harvesting capacity. (Source: DoF Yearbook of Fisheries Statistics 2023-24.)
- Chittagong port handled 3.41 million TEUs; Matarbari targets 2026-2027 commissioning. Chittagong Port Authority recorded 3.41 million TEU throughput in FY24. The draft ceiling at Chittagong blocks post-Panamax calls, forcing transshipment through Colombo and Singapore. The JICA-funded Matarbari deep-sea port (4 million TEU planned, minimum 16.0 metre draft) is designed to remove that ceiling if delivered on schedule. (Source: CPA Annual Report FY24; JICA Matarbari project documents; Bangladesh Planning Commission.)
- LDC graduation in November 2026 removes duty-free preference for fish and shrimp exports. Bangladesh's graduation from LDC status on November 24, 2026, with a 3-year preference grace to November 2029, will raise tariffs on fish and seafood exports to the EU and other preference markets, intensifying the need for quality certification and value-addition. (Source: UN Committee for Development Policy, 2024.)
Bangladesh holds sovereign rights over a 118,813 sq km EEZ and a 354,000 sq km continental shelf, a maritime territory equal to roughly 80% of its land area and secured by the 2012 ITLOS judgment against Myanmar (Case No. 16) and the 2014 UNCLOS Annex VII arbitral award against India. The fisheries sector returned 2.53% of GDP in FY24 (DoF Yearbook of Fisheries Statistics 2023-24) and only 8 of 26 offshore gas blocks have been explored. The governing thesis of this brief is sharp and falsifiable: the binding constraints are institutional, not geological, so legislation and contract design, not new surveys, are the first-order moves. What would falsify it is a single counter-fact: an offshore licensing round that clears on the existing fiscal terms, which would prove the deterrent was never the rules. The clock is set by LDC graduation on November 24, 2026, which begins eroding the duty-free edge on the country's main marine export.
Fisheries: Scale Achieved, Sustainability Not
About 12% of the population, over 17 million people, depend on the fisheries sector, which supplies 22.26% of agricultural GDP (DoF Yearbook of Fisheries Statistics 2023-24). That is a functioning, industrial-scale fishery, though marine capture is only about 41% of production and inland aquaculture carries the rest. The weakness is the quality and durability of the catch: DoF assessment puts only about 60% of harvest within sustainable limits, and stock assessments for non-hilsa demersal species do not exist. The 65-day marine fishing ban and 22-day hilsa breeding closure have partially rebuilt hilsa stocks, proving that targeted, time-bound restrictions work. The unmanaged risk is illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing by foreign-flagged trawlers across a coastline with thin vessel-monitoring enforcement. LDC graduation on November 24, 2026, with grace to November 2029 (UN Committee for Development Policy, 2024), restores EU MFN tariffs on fish and shrimp. The tariff-cliff exposure is concrete: today Bangladesh ships under EU duty-free Everything But Arms access, but on graduation frozen shrimp and prawns revert to the EU MFN rate of 9.6% (EU TARIC, the same cliff the knitwear sector faces), so value-addition and certification, not raw volume, decide whether the export base holds.
Ports: One Gateway, One Draft Ceiling
Chittagong handled 3.41 million TEU (CPA Annual Report FY24), making it the dominant gateway for the economy. Its draft ceiling is the binding constraint: post-Panamax vessels cannot call, forcing transshipment through Colombo and Singapore and adding days to North American and European transit. Matarbari (Moheshkhali, JICA-funded, 4 million TEU planned capacity) resolves this if delivered. The Planning Commission's own target is a minimum 16.0 metre draft deep-sea port at Matarbari (Bangladesh Planning Commission), and JICA's cross-border logistics survey confirms it as the anchor of the Bay of Bengal logistics corridor (JICA Bangladesh, 2024). The upside is positioning Bangladesh as the bay's primary transshipment node; the downside is schedule slippage that cedes that window to competing regional capacity.
Offshore Energy: 5 Tcf Estimated, 18 of 26 Blocks Untouched
An estimated 5 Tcf of offshore gas remains largely uncharacterized, with meaningful exploration in only 8 of 26 blocks (Petrobangla; BAPEX). Exploration stalled on production sharing contract terms that drew no international oil company bids in the 2023 licensing round, not on geology. Each year of inaction extends LNG import dependence. The second opportunity is offshore wind: SREDA and IRENA estimate 20-plus GW of potential in the shallow Kutubdia-Moheshkhali corridor, compatible with fixed-bottom turbines, with zero projects commissioned. The Cox's Bazar development corridor that hosts Matarbari is already the locus of national energy and logistics investment (World Bank Cox's Bazar, 2022), which lowers the marginal cost of co-locating wind and grid infrastructure there.
Ship-Breaking: Revenue Asset, Compliance Liability
Chittagong's 150 active yards recycle about 3,500,000 MT of steel a year, near 50% of global ship-recycling volume, generating roughly $2,500M in revenue and employing about 25,000 workers directly (SBRA 2023; NGO Shipbreaking Platform; BSBA 2023). That is a genuine industrial comparative advantage feeding the domestic steel supply chain. The liability is regulatory: hazardous-material handling and worker-safety records that lag every peer benchmark. Bangladesh ratified the Hong Kong Convention in 2023 and the Ship Recycling Act 2018 supplies the legal frame, but enforcement has not followed. European and Japanese owners face ESG scrutiny for Chittagong calls while green-certified yards in competing countries improve, so the base either upgrades or loses share.
Recommendations
1. Pass a Maritime Spatial Planning Act and stand up a National Maritime Authority (12-month target). The Ministry of Shipping should pilot legislation giving one authority cross-ministry jurisdiction over the full 118,813 sq km EEZ, with statutory zoning that separates artisanal fishing grounds from industrial trawler corridors, designates offshore wind areas, and buffers marine protected areas (currently about 4% of the EEZ against the Kunming-Montreal target of 30% by 2030). Success signal: an enacted Act and a gazetted authority with a published EEZ zoning map within 12 months. Effect: removes the regulatory-conflict risk that stalls every downstream investment.
2. Re-tender offshore blocks on internationally competitive PSC terms (18-month target). The Energy Division and Petrobangla should revise the fiscal terms that produced zero bids in 2023 and commission BAPEX joint feasibility studies on the 18 unexplored blocks. Success signal: at least one signed PSC with an international operator from the re-tendered round. Effect: moves the 5 Tcf estimate toward proven reserves and reduces LNG import exposure.
3. Tie ship-recycling port access to Hong Kong Convention certification (24-month target). The Ministry of Industries should mandate phased yard upgrades, with certified yards accessing a preferential bank financing facility and non-certified yards facing escalating port-access levies. Success signal: a majority of active yards holding Hong Kong Convention statements of compliance within 24 months. Effect: protects the roughly $2,500M revenue base and 25,000 jobs from ESG-driven market exit.
4. Mandate seafood traceability and EU-grade certification ahead of November 2029 (24-month target). The Department of Fisheries should fund catch-documentation and cold-chain certification for the export fleet before the LDC preference grace expires. Success signal: a functioning catch-documentation scheme covering the licensed export fleet before the grace ends. Effect: defends the fish and shrimp export base when EU MFN tariffs return.
5. Reach financial close on a competitive offshore wind pilot in the Kutubdia-Moheshkhali corridor (36-month target). SREDA should run an IPP tender with SREDA as off-taker and JICA or ADB as concessional lenders, co-located with the Matarbari corridor's existing grid build-out. Success signal: a signed power purchase agreement and financial close on a first pilot within 36 months. Effect: de-risks the 20-plus GW pipeline and creates a repeatable procurement template.
What Would Change This View
Three developments would revise the priorities above. First, a successful offshore licensing round on unchanged fiscal terms would falsify the institutional thesis and move PSC reform below port and fisheries work. Second, a credible Matarbari commissioning date inside the JICA schedule would shift the constraint from infrastructure to throughput governance. Third, a stock assessment showing demersal stocks materially below the 60% sustainable estimate would push fisheries enforcement to the top of the list ahead of energy.
Sources: ITLOS Case No. 16 (2012); UNCLOS Annex VII Tribunal / PCA (2014); DoF Yearbook of Fisheries Statistics 2023-24; Petrobangla; BAPEX; Chittagong Port Authority FY24; Bangladesh Planning Commission; JICA Bangladesh (2024); World Bank Cox's Bazar (2022); IRENA; SREDA; UN Committee for Development Policy (2024); EU TARIC tariff database; SBRA 2023; NGO Shipbreaking Platform; BSBA 2023.
Data and methodology
Indicator data sourced from the Department of Fisheries (DoF) Yearbook of Fisheries Statistics 2023-24, Chittagong Port Authority (CPA) throughput reports, and Petrobangla offshore block data. GDP contribution figures follow BBS national accounts methodology. The fisheries GDP share (2.53%) and agricultural-GDP share (22.26%) are the total-sector figures from the DoF Yearbook 2023-24; marine capture is roughly 41% of fish production, so the marine-only share is materially smaller. Blue economy index is a composite of marine catch volume, port throughput, shrimp export value, and offshore exploration activity, normalised to a 100-point scale by the BDPolicyLab analysis engine.