15 Scenarios 2036

Chapter 15 of 60 in the Bangladesh 2036 research base. Contents of the series.

The decade has three paths, they diverge inside the window the transition agenda targets, and compounding turns the difference into a third of income per head

Fourteen chapters each end with indicators; this chapter assembles them into three paths to FY36: a baseline that assumes drift, a reform that assumes the transition agenda is executed, a stall that assumes it is reversed. The difference is not external luck. It is decided inside four gates that chapters 01, 04, 06 and 02 identify, revenue, banking, energy contracts and trade access, plus a fifth political variable, whether the post 2024 correction survives an election cycle, and every gate opens or closes on evidence inside the FY26 to FY28 window the transition agenda targets. Compounding makes the stakes concrete. This chapter's arithmetic, stated so it can be checked, takes the IMF base of 10,271 international dollars of GDP per head in FY25 on the 2021 ICP price basis [IMF WEO 2026, PPPPC], compounds real GDP for eleven years at the scenario growth rate, and divides by the UN medium variant population, which rises from 175.69 million persons in 2025 to 196.74 million in 2036, a factor of 1.120 [UN WPP 2024, medium variant]. At 5 percent a year the scenario arithmetic gives 15,687 international dollars per head by FY36 at FY25 prices, at 6.5 percent 18,336 and at 3.5 percent 13,391, quoted throughout as near 15,700, 18,300 and 13,400. The reform endpoint stands 37 percent above the stall endpoint, the product of a 3.0 percentage point growth gap compounding for eleven years; the baseline to reform gap is 1.5 points and 17 percent of income per head. The scenarios assign no probabilities; they are instrument settings stated as assumptions on chapters 01 to 14, and the dashboard names the ten indicators that reveal the arriving setting.

The record: a stabilised engine idling at every margin

Real growth fell from 5.78 percent in FY23 to 4.22 percent in FY24 and 3.49 percent in FY25 on the World Bank series, the weakest stretch since the pandemic year [WB WDI 2026]; the FY23 reading matches the BBS national accounts, which fixes the fiscal year each World Bank row carries [BBS NA 2024]. Income per head stood at 10,271 international dollars in FY25 in purchasing power terms on the 2021 ICP basis [IMF WEO 2026, PPPPC], the older local pull's 7,411 being a superseded price basis [IMF WEO 2026], and 2,643 USD in the national accounts for FY23, an exchange rate artefact chapter 01 warns [BBS NA 2024]. Investment is stalled at 30.95 percent of GDP in FY23, private investment at 24.18 percent [BBS NA 2024]. Inflation ran at 9.88 percent in calendar 2023 and 10.47 percent in calendar 2024 before easing to 8.77 percent in calendar 2025 [WB WDI 2026]. The state collected 7.64 percent of GDP in tax in 2021, the latest year the World Bank series carries [WB WDI 2026], the banking system carries a measured classified loan ratio of 30.6 percent after the 2025 reclassification reset [BB NPL 2026], and private credit has fallen to 35.81 percent of GDP in 2024 and 34.50 percent in 2025 [WB WDI 2026].

The external cushion is repaired but thin. Remittances rose 26.8 percent, from 23,912.22 million USD in FY24 to 30,328.80 million in FY25, on the formalisation that followed the crawling peg of 8 May 2024, chapter 03's account [BB Econ 2025, table XVIII], and reserve assets on the IMF investment position stood at 21.4 billion USD at end December 2024 [IMF IIP 2024]. Exports remain the most concentrated of any major garment exporter, 86.6 percent ready made garments in 2024 [BACI 2024]. The labour market shows the reversal chapters 08 and 11 document: female participation fell from 43.7 percent in 2022 to 38.7 percent in 2024 [ILO 2025], and agriculture's share of employment rose from 41.3 to 44.7 percent over the same two years [ILO 2025], the first sustained reversal of structural transformation in the record. The power system built capacity but not reliability: 3,818 million kilowatt hour went unserved in FY23 [BPDB 2023]. Voice and accountability stood at the 36.5 percentile in the 2024 update, the partial post 2024 correction chapter 12 records [WB WGI 2024]. The UN medium variant projects 196.74 million persons in 2036 with fertility at 1.92 births per woman [UN WPP 2024, medium variant]. Graduation from LDC status arrives in November 2026 [UN CDP 2021], inside the window, which is why the trade gate moves first.

Mechanism: five gates inside the FY26 to FY28 window pick the setting

Why three paths rather than a forecast: because the engine's idle is policy made and therefore policy reversible, and because eleven years of compounding convert small persistent growth differences into large level differences. The gates run in sequence. The revenue gate comes first because the state cannot fund the decade it has promised until the tax ratio leaves the seven percent zone, chapter 04's thesis. The banking gate comes next because recapitalisation competes for the same budget and no private investment turn survives a 30.6 percent classified loan ratio [BB NPL 2026]. The energy gate determines whether 41 percent plant capacity utilisation in FY23 [BPDB 2023] and the capacity payment stock become bills or contracts, chapter 10's account. The trade gate, the GSP+ application chapter 02 dates to 2028, the window the transition plan targets [EU GSP 2023], sets the margin on 86.6 percent of exports [BACI 2024]. The gates are coupled: revenue funds the banking cleanup, the cleanup restores credit, and credit plus reliable power set the investment rate that separates a 5 from a 6.5 percent economy.

The political variable sits across all four gates because the 2024 transition that produced the classification reset, the crawling peg and the procurement rewrite, chapter 12's record, is also the transition whose durability the indices test across the next two election cycles; the stall scenario is that record resuming its slope.

The named external projections frame the band and are not adopted as central. The IMF projects real growth of 4.7 percent in FY26, 4.3 in FY27, 4.5 in FY28, 5.7 in FY29, 5.8 in FY30 and 6.1 in FY31 [IMF WEO 2026, NGDP_RPCH], and income per head of 12,177 international dollars in FY28 and 14,857 in FY31 [IMF WEO 2026, PPPPC]; that path averages 5.2 percent over FY26 to FY31, between the baseline and reform settings, and reaches the reform pace only at the end of the window. Chapter 01 declines to treat it as baseline against the 4.22 percent FY24 and 3.49 percent FY25 prints [WB WDI 2026]. Three assumptions apply to all scenarios: no external shock larger than the FY22 to FY24 commodity and financial episode; a durable United States tariff on garments between 10 and 20 percent, the band chapter 02 assumes, with the Federal Register table recording an announced intent to raise the 10 percent Section 122 baseline to 15 percent as of its 30 April 2026 stamp [US FR 2026], precise durable value not established until the successor action is published; and the UN population path.

The decade ahead: three settings on one instrument

Three scenarios, one line of assumption per chapter; the growth settings are this research base's own, first stated in chapter 01: baseline near 5 percent, reform near 6.5, stall near 3.5.

The baseline scenario assumes drift, and drift compounds to near 15,700 international dollars per head

The baseline scenario assumes the transition reforms are partially executed and partially reversed, the pattern of the record. Quantified, the scenario assumes growth near 5 percent a year, income per head near 15,700 international dollars by FY36 on this chapter's arithmetic, tax near 9 percent of GDP by FY36, the classified ratio above 15 percent, the RMG share near 85 percent, agriculture near 40 percent of employment. Assumptions by chapter:

• 01 macro: investment recovers partially and stays below 33 percent of GDP; private credit recovers from 34.50 percent of GDP in 2025 but stays under 39 percent; growth settles near 5 percent.
• 02 trade: the GSP+ application is filed in 2028 and settled by negotiation rather than diversification; EBA ends at the close of 2029 as the timetable targets.
• 03 external: remittances plateau near 30 billion USD on the Bangladesh Bank fiscal year basis; reserves build slowly toward 28 billion USD; the crawling peg regime of May 2024 holds, chapter 05's record.
• 04 fiscal: the tax ratio drifts to 9 percent as chapter 04 assumes; external debt service climbs toward 5,000 million USD a year; the development programme keeps 39.72 percent in transport and power in FY26, 25.64 transport and communication and 14.08 power and energy [Planning Commission ADP 2025, ADP at a glance table].
• 05 monetary: inflation enters the 6 to 7 percent band nearer FY30, as chapter 05's baseline assumes; the new central bank law stalls.
• 06 banking: the weakest banks are resolved and the rest carried; the classified ratio falls from its peak and stays above 15 percent.
• 07 finance: none of the four market decisions lands cleanly; SME loans stay near the 5.98 percent of GDP of 2024 [IMF FAS 2024].
• 08 employment: participation drifts up slowly; the labour force reaches about 83 million by 2036 as chapter 08 assumes, holding the 2024 labour force to population ratio of 0.4242 against the UN medium variant population of 196.74 million, with employment of 79 to 80 million [UN WPP 2024, medium variant]; agriculture holds near 40 percent.
• 09 human capital: education stays near its 2.03 percent of GDP of 2024 [WB WDI 2026] and government health spending near its 0.31 percent of 2023 [WHO GHO 2023, GGHE-D share of GDP]; learning poverty does not improve from its 51.22 percent reading [WB WDI 2026].
• 10 energy: tariffs adjust partially; renewables stay under 5 percent; energy not served stays above 500 million kilowatt hour in stress years [BPDB 2023].
• 11 climate: the climate allocation share holds near 5.4 percent of the development programme [Planning Commission ADP 2025]; flood years above a quarter of the territory recur, four running from 2020 to 2023, 40.0 percent of the territory in 2020 and 25.7 percent in 2023 [BWDB 2023]; displacement lands in Dhaka.
• 12 governance: elections stay competitive but administrative reform stalls; the CPIA public administration and revenue ratings stay near 2.6 and 2.0 [WB CPIA 2024].
• 13 digital: internet use passes 60 percent late in the decade; ICT service exports hold the 600 to 750 million USD band [WB WDI 2026].
• 14 urban: the Dhaka share drifts toward 45 percent and the agglomeration passes 34 million persons, the baseline chapter 14 prices; net cropped area holds above 19,500 thousand acres [BBS Agri 2024].

The reform scenario assumes execution, and execution compounds to near 18,300 international dollars per head

The reform scenario assumes the gates open in sequence inside the window: revenue, then banking resolution, then energy repricing, then trade access, held in place by two competitive election cycles. Quantified: growth near 6.5 percent a year, income per head near 18,300 international dollars by FY36 on this chapter's arithmetic, tax passing 10 percent of GDP around FY31 as chapter 04 assumes and near 12 percent by FY36 on this chapter's assumption, the classified ratio below 10 percent, the RMG share below 80 percent, agriculture below 38 percent of employment. Assumptions by chapter:

• 01 macro: the investment ratio turns above 33 percent of GDP and private investment above 25, chapter 01's marks; growth runs near 6.5 percent.
• 02 trade: the GSP+ application is filed in 2028 and granted; extended cumulation secures woven garments; the pharmaceutical window the 2015 TRIPS decision targets at 1 January 2033 [WTO 2015] builds a second export sector; the RMG share falls below 80 percent.
• 03 external: remittances rise above 36 billion USD on the Bangladesh Bank fiscal year basis as the skill mix upgrades; reserves build above 35 billion USD; the current account stays near minus 0.6 percent of GDP [IMF WEO 2026].
• 04 fiscal: the tax ratio passes 10 percent around FY31, which chapter 04 assumes; the 3,371.6 million USD external debt service of FY24 [ERD 2024] is absorbed by the wider revenue base.
• 05 monetary: the new central bank law passes; inflation is inside the 6 to 7 percent band by around FY28, the horizon the programme reviews target; real policy rates stay positive from the 10.00 percent overnight policy rate effective 27 October 2024, a figure this chapter could not confirm from the sources it draws on, carried from chapter 05 [BB AR 2024].
• 06 banking: weak Islamic and legacy banks are resolved and state banks recapitalised; the classified ratio falls below 10 percent around FY31 as chapter 06's reform scenario assumes; deposits recover above 38 percent of GDP [IMF FAS 2024].
• 07 finance: funded pensions are licensed and the corporate bond market begins underwriting; SME loans recover above 8 percent of GDP by around FY31, the threshold chapter 07's scenario sets.
• 08 employment: female participation recovers above 44 percent; the wage and salaried share reaches the mid forties; agriculture falls below 38 percent of employment.
• 09 human capital: education moves above 3 percent of GDP and government health spending above 0.7; the HCI Plus score approaches 165 by FY36 on the trajectory chapter 09's arithmetic assumes [WB HCI 2025, HD_HCIP_OVRL_TO].
• 10 energy: capacity contracts are repriced at expiry as the IMF programme benchmarks target [IMF Art IV 2025]; renewables pass 5 percent by 2030, the mark chapter 10's reform scenario targets; gas production stabilises near 800 billion cubic feet [EIA 2025].
• 11 climate: the climate allocation share rises above 8 percent, chapter 11's threshold; the PM2.5 series leaves the 40s from its 42.4 reading [WB WDI 2026].
• 12 governance: two competitive election cycles hold; the CPIA ratings return to 3.0 by around FY31, the regime change chapter 12's scenario defines; the Open Budget score moves above 50 from 31 [IBP Open Budget 2023].
• 13 digital: internet use rises above 70 percent on the pace chapter 13's upper path targets; ICT exports sustain above 1 billion USD; the expression index recovers above 0.494 [VDem 2022].
• 14 urban: secondary city absorption holds the Dhaka share nearer 40 percent; cadastral completion converts the 12.7 million digitised khatians chapter 14 counts, a figure that could not be confirmed from the sources this chapter draws on, into bankable title, the collateral dividend chapter 14 prices [DLRS 2023, annual report 2022-23].

The stall scenario assumes reversion, and reversion compounds to near 13,400 international dollars per head

The stall scenario assumes the dominance machine chapter 12 documents rebuilds inside the elected state, and the 2010 to 2024 record resumes on every index. Quantified, the scenario assumes growth near 3.5 percent a year, income per head near 13,400 international dollars by FY36 on this chapter's arithmetic, tax stuck near 8 percent, a classified ratio that falls on paper without recovery, the RMG share above 88 percent, agriculture above 45 percent of employment. Assumptions by chapter:

• 01 macro: the investment ratio slips below 31 percent of GDP; growth runs near 3.5 percent; the statistics credibility discount returns.
• 02 trade: the GSP+ window slips; in the failure case this scenario assumes, most favoured nation duties near 12 percent apply to EU apparel from 2030; the RMG share rises above 88 percent.
• 03 external: Gulf labour demand softens; remittances fall below 25 billion USD on the Bangladesh Bank fiscal year basis; reserves fall below 18 billion USD.
• 04 fiscal: the tax ratio stays near 8 percent; arrears finance the gap; the subsidy and interest bills crowd the development programme.
• 05 monetary: a lending cap returns and deficit financing revives; inflation goes back above 10 percent.
• 06 banking: rescheduling returns; the measured ratio falls without recovery, the pre reset pattern; private credit falls below 34 percent of GDP, half a point under the 34.50 percent of 2025 [WB WDI 2026].
• 07 finance: a price shock brings back floor prices and the market freezes; account ownership falls below 40 percent of adults from 43.3 [WB Findex 2024, account.t.d].
• 08 employment: the 2022 to 2024 reversal is confirmed as trend; agriculture holds above 45 percent into the late 2030s on this scenario's reading of chapter 08.
• 09 human capital: learning poverty stays near 51 percent or worsens; the out of pocket health share passes 80 percent from 79.31 [WHO GHO 2023, OOP as share of CHE].
• 10 energy: capacity payments go unreformed; energy not served exceeds 2,000 million kilowatt hour in stress years; the 138,685.77 crore BDT Rooppur commitment stays a cost centre [Planning Commission ADP 2025].
• 11 climate: the water budget erodes in real terms; freshwater per head falls below 550 cubic metres [WB WDI 2026]; the internal climate migration projection chapter 11 flags as unconfirmed adds to the megacity inflow [WB CCDR 2022].
• 12 governance: the voice and accountability percentile falls below 30 from 36.5 [WB WGI 2024]; the corruption perceptions score falls below 20 from 23 [TI CPI 2024, via the OWID corruption perception file].
• 13 digital: the expression index falls back below 0.35; ICT exports break below 600 million USD.
• 14 urban: climate displacement accelerates the megacity path; the Dhaka share passes 45 percent; the slum share rises above 55 percent [WB WDI 2026].

Three risks compound through the gates and the upside is three dividends the same datasets price

Risks. First, compound gate failure: the revenue and banking gates fail together, private credit stays below 34 percent of GDP, a threshold the 2025 reading of 34.50 percent already touches, the investment ratio never leaves the 31 percent band, and the economy lands on the stall path with no single institution failing; the revealing indicator is the private credit ratio in the dashboard. Second, the trade squeeze: a GSP+ gap stacks a near 12 percent EU duty on top of a 10 to 20 percent United States wall, the buyer margin disappears across all markets at once, and the RMG share rises as the total falls; the revealing indicators are the GSP+ filing date and the monthly export figures chapter 02 watches. Third, the climate and fuel shock: an LNG price spike against the 21.4 billion USD of reserve assets at end 2024 repeats the FY23 rationing at larger scale in a flood year like 2020, when 40.0 percent of the territory flooded [BWDB 2023]; the revealing indicators are energy not served and the flood affected area series [BPDB 2023].

Upside. First, the last demographic decade: the window chapter 08 dates is still open, its arithmetic assumes 10 to 11 million net new jobs by 2036, and a reform decade is the last that can cash the dividend before the old age dependency ratio, 9.92 dependants per 100 working age persons, crosses the threshold chapter 08 defines [WB WDI 2026]. Second, the formalisation dividend is the cheapest growth on the table: the payment rail that moved 34.7 percent of GDP in transactions in 2024 [IMF FAS 2024] is simultaneously the tax instrument chapter 04 needs, the remittance channel behind the FY25 jump of 26.83 percent and the credit bureau chapter 07's small firm answer runs on; one institutional decision, admissible digital ledgers, pulls all three. Third, the credibility premium: the transition's honesty about measured reality, the reset classification ratio, the rebased accounts, the rebuilt procurement rulebook [BPPA 2025], reprices sovereign risk before the real economy turns, and the sovereign spread chapter 07 tracks, 480 basis points in 2024 [IMF Art IV 2024], is the market's verdict on whether the reform scenario is believed.

What to watch: ten indicators whose thresholds mark the regime

The dashboard reads the latest value with its source, the level each scenario targets by FY36 and the regime change threshold.

Indicator	Latest value	Source	Stall scenario	Baseline scenario	Reform scenario	Regime change threshold
Real GDP growth	3.49 percent, FY25; 4.22 percent, FY24	[WB WDI 2026]	near 3.5 percent a year	near 5 percent a year	near 6.5 percent a year	two prints above 5.5 percent confirm the recovery scenario; two prints below 4 percent confirm the stall, and FY25 is the first
GDP per head, PPP, FY25 prices	10,271 international dollars, FY25	[IMF WEO 2026]	near 13,400	near 15,700	near 18,300	above 14,000 international dollars by FY32 confirms the reform path chapter 01 targets, which this chapter's 6.5 percent setting places at 14,766; under 13,000 by FY33 confirms the stall, which the 3.5 percent setting places at 12,394
CPI inflation	8.77 percent, calendar 2025; 10.47 percent, calendar 2024	[WB WDI 2026]	back above 10 percent	inside 6 to 7 percent nearer FY30	inside 6 to 7 percent around FY28	below 6.5 percent sustained is the regime change the disinflation scenario targets; above 11 percent is failure
Tax revenue to GDP	7.64 percent, 2021, latest in the series	[WB WDI 2026]	stuck near 8 percent	drifting to 9 percent	near 12 percent	sustained above 9 percent confirms the reform scenario; under 7 percent confirms the stall
Classified loan ratio	30.6 percent, latest	[BB NPL 2026]	falls on paper, no recovery	above 15 percent through the decade	below 10 percent around FY31	a peak and fall driven by write offs and resolution is the regime change the reform scenario marks; a quiet decline without them is the old regime
RMG share of merchandise exports	86.6 percent, calendar 2024	[BACI 2024]	above 88 percent	near 85 percent	below 80 percent	below 80 percent confirms the diversification scenario; above 88 percent confirms concentration deepening
Remittances	30,328.80 million USD, FY25	[BB Econ 2025]	below 25 billion USD	plateau near 30 billion USD	above 36 billion USD	below 25 billion USD signals the cushion eroding; above 36 billion USD confirms the skill upgrade scenario. Thresholds re-based in proportion when the level moved from a World Bank calendar year reading to the Bangladesh Bank fiscal year series
Reserve assets, IMF investment position	21.4 billion USD, end December 2024	[IMF IIP 2024]	below 18 billion USD	building toward 28 billion USD	above 35 billion USD	sustained above 28 billion USD confirms the programme ended safely; below 18 billion USD signals a renewed defence
Female labour force participation	38.7 percent, 2024	[ILO 2025]	below 35 percent	near 41 percent	above 44 percent	above 44 percent confirms the participation regime resumed; below 35 percent confirms the retreat as trend
Agriculture share of employment	44.7 percent, 2024	[ILO 2025]	above 45 percent	near 40 percent	below 38 percent	below 40 percent confirms transformation resumed; above 46 percent confirms the distress absorption regime

Sources used

[BB Econ 2025] Bangladesh Bank Monthly Economic Trends October 2025, table XVIII, workers' remittance inflows on the fiscal year: FY24 23,912.22 million USD and FY25 30,328.80 million, read via the bb/remittances lake. The World Bank series wb_remittance_inflows holds zero rows and the 33.88 billion USD calendar 2025 figure previously carried here had no source. [WB WDI 2026] World Bank WDI and indicator snapshot updated 2026-09-04 via bdpolicy.db, years re-read from the World Bank API on 2026-09-06, series: wb_gdp_growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), wb_cpi_inflation (FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), wb_tax_revenue_pct_gdp (GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS), wb_financial_sector_fs_ast_prvt_gd_zs (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS), SE.LPV.PRIM, SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS, EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3, ER.H2O.INTR.PC, EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS, SP.POP.DPND.OL, BX.GSR.CCIS.CD. [IMF WEO 2026] IMF World Economic Outlook database via the datamapper API, https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/v1/, read 2026-09-06, series: PPPPC, NGDP_RPCH; and the older local pull via bdpolicy.db, series: macro_gdp_per_capita_ppp (cited only to record the superseded 7,411 base), imf_current_account_pct_gdp. [IMF IIP 2024] IMF International Investment Position via bdpolicy.db, annual at calendar year end, series: imf_iip_reserve_assets_total_usd_m. [BB NPL 2026] Bangladesh Bank classified loan snapshot updated 2026-09-04 via bdpolicy.db, series: bb_npl_ratio. [BACI 2024] CEPII trade at HS6 via TradeWeave parquet, series: bd_hs6_trade. [ILO 2025] ILOSTAT modelled estimates via bdpolicy parquet, series: ilo_eap_2wap_sex_age_rt_a, ilo_emp_temp_sex_eco_nb_a. [UN WPP 2024] UN World Population Prospects 2024 via bdpolicy parquet, series: un_wpp2024_bd medium variant. [BBS NA 2024] BBS national accounts via bdpolicy.db, series: bbs_gdp_real_growth_rate_pct, bbs_per_capita_gdp_usd, bbs_investment_gdp_ratio_pct, bbs_private_investment_gdp_ratio_pct. [BBS Agri 2024] BBS agriculture statistics via bdpolicy parquet, series: bbs_land_utilization_bd. [BPDB 2023] BPDB annual report FY2022-23 via bdpolicy lake/energy, series: bpdb_power_capacity_generation_panel, bpdb_financial_performance_2023. [UN CDP 2021] UN CDP LDC graduation decision for Bangladesh. [WTO 2015] WTO TRIPS Council decision on the pharmaceutical transition for LDCs. [ERD 2024] Economic Relations Division debt service series via bdpolicy.db, series: erd_debt_service_total_usd_mn. [Planning Commission ADP 2025] Annual Development Programme 2025-2026, Programming Division, Bangladesh Planning Commission, June 2025, ADP at a glance sector table and ministry wise allocation table, shares on the 230,000.00 crore approved programme, https://adp.plancomm.gov.bd/book/2025-2026-ADP-BOOK.pdf, accessed 6 September 2026. [BB AR 2024] Bangladesh Bank annual report FY2023-24 via ocr_text/bb/annual_report, cited by chapter 05 for the overnight policy rate of 10.00 percent effective 27 October 2024 and the crawling peg of 8 May 2024; the policy rate passage was not found in the OCR text available to this chapter. [IMF Art IV 2025] IMF Article IV and programme reviews, capacity contract repricing benchmarks. [IMF Art IV 2024] IMF Article IV via bdpolicy parquet bd_sovereign_spreads, series: bd_sovereign_spreads_cds_5y. [IMF FAS 2024] IMF Financial Access Survey via bdpolicy.db, series: imf_fas_sme_loans_pct_gdp, imf_fas_commercial_bank_deposits_pct_gdp, imf_fas_mobile_money_tx_pct_gdp. [WB Findex 2024] Global Findex 2024 wave via bdpolicy parquet, series: account.t.d. [WB HCI 2025] World Bank Human Capital Index Plus via bdpolicy parquet, series: HD_HCIP_OVRL_TO. [WHO GHO 2023] WHO Global Health Observatory via bdpolicy parquet, series: OOP as share of CHE, GGHE-D share of GDP. [EIA 2025] US EIA international energy statistics, dry gas production, Bangladesh. [BWDB 2023] Bangladesh Water Development Board historical flood record via bdpolicy.db, series: bwdb_flood_affected_pct, flood affected share of the territory by calendar year. [WB WGI 2024] Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2024 update, via bdpolicy parquet governance/wgi_bd. [WB CPIA 2024] World Bank CPIA via bdpolicy parquet, ratings to 2024. [TI CPI 2024] Corruption Perceptions Index 2024, via the OWID corruption perception file. [VDem 2022] V-Dem dataset via bdpolicy parquet, series: v2x_freexp_altinf. [WB CCDR 2022] World Bank Country Climate and Development Report, internal climate migration projections, figures not held in the data lake used by this chapter. [BPPA 2025] Bangladesh Public Procurement Authority, Public Procurement Rules 2025, referenced from chapter 12. [DLRS 2023] Department of Land Records and Survey annual report 2022-23, khatian digitisation counts, referenced from chapter 14; the report is not held in the data lake used by this chapter. [EU GSP 2023] GSP regulation (EU) No 978/2012 as applied, EBA timetable and GSP+ application conditions, from chapter 02. [US FR 2026] Federal Register tariff actions via the trade/bd_us_tariff_actions parquet, status stamped 30 April 2026: Section 122 baseline of 10 percent from 24 February 2026 capped to 23 July 2026, announced intent to raise to 15 percent.

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Verified line by line against primary sources: 64 claims checked, 12 corrected.

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