10 Energy and infrastructure

Chapter 10 of 60 in the Bangladesh 2036 research base. Contents of the series.

The power system was built in fifteen years, and the decade to FY36 is about paying for the fuel, the contracts and the concrete

Bangladesh enters the decade with the supply side of its energy system largely built and its economics largely unresolved. Installed capacity rose from 4,942 megawatt in 2009 to 28,134 megawatt in June 2023 including captive and renewable capacity [Power Division 2023], while the most the grid ever served at one moment was 15,648 megawatt in FY23 [BPDB 2023]. The thesis of this chapter is that the decade the chapter 15 scenarios assume, FY27 to FY36, is decided by three bills that come due together rather than by any new buildout: the imported fuel bill that replaced depleted domestic gas, the capacity payment stock signed during the expansion, and the debt service on the megaproject fleet. A system that holds roughly 1.8 times its historical peak in capacity is an asset only if the contracts behind it are repriced and the fuel behind it is affordable in foreign exchange; otherwise it is a fixed cost that arrives whether or not demand shows up. The FY23 outturn demonstrated the failure mode: capacity peaked, fuel ran short, and 3,818 million kilowatt hour went unserved [BPDB 2023].

The record: capacity at 1.6 times peak served, a mix twice switched away from gas, and a finished transport fleet

The expansion record is real. Power plants numbered 27 in 2009 and 152 in June 2023 [Power Division 2023]. The BPDB plant panel shows installed capacity of 24,911 megawatt in FY23 against 9,151 megawatt in FY13, with maximum demand of 17,100 megawatt, maximum supply actually served of 15,648 megawatt, and total generation of 88,450 gigawatt hour in FY23 [BPDB 2023]. Per capita generation reached 517.89 kilowatt hour in FY23 from 173.48 kilowatt hour in FY09 [BPDB 2023], and electricity consumption per head in the World Bank series reached 602.90 kilowatt hour in the WDI 2023 row [WB WDI 2026]; the IEA energy balances behind the WDI energy rows report Bangladesh on a July to June year, so the row would read as FY23, a mapping that could not be confirmed from the sources this chapter draws on. Access is effectively universal: 99.5 percent of the population in the 2023 WDI reading [WB WDI 2026], and the state counts electrification as complete [Power Division 2023]. The wires followed the plants: transmission lines stood at 14,717 circuit kilometre in FY23, an 84 percent expansion since 2009, grid substation capacity at 61,525 megavolt ampere, and distribution lines at 643,167 kilometre [Power Division 2023].

The generation mix shifted twice, both times away from domestic gas. Gas supplied 92.46 percent of generation in 2010 and 64.29 percent in 2025; coal rose from 1.69 percent in 2015 to 21.51 percent in 2025; solar supplied 1.51 percent and all renewables 2.14 percent in 2025; nuclear supplied nothing through 2025 [Ember 2025]. Total generation was 103.40 terawatt hour in 2025 against 101.74 in 2024, below the growth of demand, which reached 118.06 terawatt hour in 2025 from 92.13 in 2020 [Ember 2025]. The gap closed with imports: net electricity imports were 14.66 terawatt hour in 2025, 10.00 in 2024 and 3.38 in 2015, so roughly one kilowatt hour in eight consumed in 2025 was generated abroad [Ember 2025]. On the fuel side the EIA series records dry gas imports of 243.8 billion cubic feet in 2024, a quarter of the 955.2 billion cubic feet consumed, against domestic production of 711.4 [EIA 2025]. BPDB's own account records 10,425 million kilowatt hour of power imports in FY23 [BPDB 2023], against 2,656 megawatt of contracted import capacity from India [Power Division 2023].

The gas base under the whole system is two thirds depleted. Petrobangla's 2024 field census records gas initially in place of 38,211 billion cubic feet, proved and probable recoverable reserves of 29,737 billion cubic feet, cumulative production of 21,082 billion cubic feet, and remaining recoverable reserves of 8,655 billion cubic feet, 29.1 percent of the recoverable base [Petrobangla 2024]. Domestic fields produced 2,023 million standard cubic feet a day in 2024, of which the single Bibiyana field produced 1,009, 49.9 percent of the national total, and Bibiyana's remaining reserve is 1,667 billion cubic feet of 7,666 recoverable [Petrobangla 2024]. The reserve figures move with the estimator: the January 2023 census carried Bibiyana at 333 billion cubic feet remaining of 5,755 recoverable, on 440.33 billion cubic feet of FY22 production, and the 2024 report adopts the 2014 DeGolyer and MacNaughton estimate instead [Petrobangla 2023]. Net energy imports reached 44.31 percent of energy use in WDI year 2022 from 14.45 percent in WDI year 2010 [WB WDI 2026]. The state knows the trajectory; the FY26 Annual Development Programme allocates 1,278.7 crore BDT to 38 projects of the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, mostly Petrobangla exploration wells and seismic surveys [Planning Commission ADP 2025].

The money story is the mirror of the build story. BPDB recorded an operating loss of 6,131 crore BDT in FY23, a loss before tax of 9,062 crore BDT, plant capacity utilisation of 41 percent, and accounts payable outstanding an average 192.7 days [BPDB 2023]. The capacity payment mechanism is visible in the audited accounts of a single generating company: NWPGCL billed BPDB 2,062.77 crore BDT of capacity payments in FY25 against 1,705.00 crore BDT of energy payments, more for existing than for producing; a year earlier the same accounts show 2,048.35 crore BDT of capacity payments against 1,524.28 crore BDT of energy payments, so capacity billing rose 0.7 percent while energy billing rose 11.9 percent [NWPGCL 2025]. Losses sit in the wires: PGCB's transmission system lost 3.07 percent of the 81,394 million kilowatt hour it moved in FY23 [PGCB 2023] and BPDB's distribution network lost 7.92 percent [BPDB 2023], against the 7.90 percent transmission and distribution reading in the World Bank series' 2023 row [WB WDI 2026]. On the petroleum side, BPC imported 6.87 million tonne of petroleum products in FY23 and earned an operating profit of 5,859 crore BDT in the same year [BPC 2023]. Chapter 04 carries the fiscal translation of these accounts, where power sits inside the 3.46 trillion BDT of state owned enterprise liabilities recorded in FY23 [MoF Budget 2023].

Transport infrastructure reached a completion threshold in the same window. The Padma Bridge (6.15 kilometre, opened June 2022, neither figure confirmed from the sources this chapter draws on) collected 798.39 crore BDT of tolls in FY23, 857.24 crore BDT in FY24 and 895.10 crore BDT in FY25 from 6.89 million vehicles, 2,550.73 crore BDT over its first three full years [BBA 2026]. The Karnaphuli tunnel, a 10,689.71 crore BDT project, stood at 98 percent physical and 91.51 percent financial progress in June 2023 and opened in October 2023 [BBA 2023]. Chattogram Port handled 3.17 million TEU and 123.24 million tonne of cargo in FY24; vessel turnaround bottomed at 2.0 days in FY22 and slipped back to 2.58 days by FY24 as volumes recovered, and berth occupancy peaked at 92 percent in FY22 before easing to 78.17 percent in FY23 [CPA 2024]. The FY26 ADP still carries the construction decade's tail: the power and energy sector lines hold 48,463.81 crore BDT of allocation, 18.99 percent of the programme, with the Power Division alone holding 50 projects carrying 15,531 crore BDT of fresh allocation against 203,688 crore BDT of committed project cost [Planning Commission ADP 2025]; Matarbari 2x600 megawatt ultra supercritical coal has cost 56,693.90 crore BDT of which 48,877.46 crore BDT was spent by the start of FY26, the Rooppur nuclear plant carries 138,685.77 crore BDT of total cost with 94,689.26 crore BDT spent, and the Padma bridge rail link carries 38,624.91 crore BDT of cost with 33,670.76 crore BDT spent [Planning Commission ADP 2025].

Mechanism: a depletion story, a contract design story, a megaproject machine, and no renewables mechanism at all

The fuel switch is a depletion story before it is a price story. Bangladesh produced its way through two thirds of a gas base that once supplied over 90 percent of electricity, and the remaining third depends on one field that is itself running down: Bibiyana, which produces half the national output, holds 1,667 billion cubic feet of remaining reserve against 7,666 billion cubic feet recoverable [Petrobangla 2024]. At the 2024 domestic rate of 2,023 million standard cubic feet a day, 738 billion cubic feet a year, the national remaining base is under twelve years of output and Bibiyana's under five [Petrobangla 2024]; both are illustrations against one year's rate, not forecasts. The response from 2018 onward was floating regasification: two terminals of 500 million standard cubic feet per day each, and purchase agreements with Qatar for 1.8 to 2.5 million tonne per year and Oman for 0.5 to 1.0 million tonne per year [Petrobangla 2018]. This converted a domestic cost structure into a dollar indexed one at the worst possible moment. When LNG spot prices spiked in 2022 and the taka adjusted late, as chapter 03 and chapter 05 document, the state did what the balance sheet allowed: it cut generation. The result was the FY23 rationing, 3,818 million kilowatt hour unserved against 84 million kilowatt hour in FY22 [BPDB 2023], an outage 45 times the prior year in a system with record installed capacity. Fuel security, not capacity, is the binding constraint on supply.

The capacity payment stock is a contract design story. Independent and state owned plants are paid under two part tariffs: a capacity payment for availability and an energy payment for output, with the capacity component denominated in the currency of the plant's debt. NWPGCL's accounts state the design plainly, BPDB pays capacity for foreign loans at the spot rate of the relevant currency, so exchange rate movement flows straight to the purchaser [NWPGCL 2025]. The system consequence is that overcapacity is not a market signal but a bill: at 41 percent utilisation [BPDB 2023], BPDB pays for availability it does not convert into sales, and pays more taka per dollar of that availability every time the exchange rate moves. BPDB's response to the squeeze was arrears, 192.7 days of payables in FY23 [BPDB 2023], which cascades to gas suppliers, fuel importers and PDB bondholders, and is the contingent fiscal claim chapter 04 flags inside state owned enterprise liabilities. No source available to this chapter publishes a sector wide capacity payment total for FY25; the single company example and the 41 percent utilisation rate are the citable evidence of the mechanism.

The megaproject machine is the third mechanism. The Annual Development Programme finances projects with total costs far above annual allocations, so each project is a multi year claim on future budgets and foreign loans: the revised FY26 programme holds 203,688 crore BDT of committed project cost in the Power Division alone against 15,531 crore BDT of fresh allocation, where the published original programme gave the division 20,283.62 crore BDT, 8.82 percent of the 230,000.00 crore programme [Planning Commission ADP 2025]. Execution stretches across a decade: Rooppur started in July 2016 with completion now targeted for June 2028, Matarbari coal in July 2014 with December 2026, and the Padma rail link in January 2016 with June 2026 [Planning Commission ADP 2025]. The financing side is documented in chapters 03 and 04; the sector consequence is that debt service on plants and links that are finished but under earning, such as a nuclear station with 94,689.26 crore BDT spent before its first unit generated a kilowatt hour [Planning Commission ADP 2025], competes with the operation and maintenance of the system that already exists.

The renewables failure is the fourth mechanism, and it is mostly an absence of mechanism. Solar supplied 1.51 percent of generation in 2025 and wind nothing, with 0.85 gigawatt of solar capacity in 2024 [Ember 2025]. The obstacles were structural: land scarcity near the grid, the same dollar indexed contracting that priced gas plants out of competitiveness, and a system built on availability payments that has no revenue reason to welcome generation with zero fuel cost. Even the traditional biomass share of final energy consumption fell, from 40.3 percent in WDI year 2010 to 25.0 percent in WDI year 2021, a shift to LPG and electricity that raises import dependence rather than reducing it [WB WDI 2026]. The division's own work plan in the FY23 annual report targets 40,000 megawatt of installed capacity by 2030 and 60,000 megawatt by 2041, renewables at up to 40 percent of generation by 2041, 9,000 megawatt of cross border import capacity by 2041, and 28,320 circuit kilometre of transmission by 2030 [Power Division 2023]; set against a 2.14 percent renewable share in 2025 [Ember 2025], the renewable target requires a faster share expansion than the system's first fifteen years delivered, while the investment programme that same document controls remains committed to the fuel and contract stock described above.

The decade ahead: four decisions get made whether or not anyone announces them

Demand sets the arithmetic. Electricity demand grew at 5.1 percent a year between 2020 and 2025 [Ember 2025], a rate that roughly doubles the load the system must serve in fifteen years; even the slower growth the chapter 15 scenarios assume for a 4 percent economy keeps demand rising faster than generation, which was flat in 2024 and 2025. Four decisions will therefore be made in this window whether or not anyone announces them.

The fuel decision, authored by the Energy and Mineral Resources Division with Petrobangla as executor, is whether domestic exploration reverses any of the decline. The FY26 programme is the largest exploration push in years: appraisal and development wells in Titas, Kamta, Sundalpur and Srikail, exploration wells at Sundalpur South, Jamalpur, Rashidpur, Dupitila and Kailashtila, two deep exploration wells in Titas and Bakhrabad, and 3-D seismic over Habiganj, Bakhrabad and Meghna [Planning Commission ADP 2025]. The arithmetic is that these wells buy time; 1,278.7 crore BDT of revised programme allocation, against 2,086.32 crore BDT for the Energy and Mineral Resources Division in the published original programme, against a consumption base of 955.2 billion cubic feet [EIA 2025] does not replace imported LNG at current volumes. No gas self sufficiency target appears in any source this chapter draws on, and any such target could not be confirmed; the decadal question is whether production stabilises near 800 billion cubic feet a year or keeps falling toward 650. The programme's own hedge sits beside the wells: a 53.21 crore BDT feasibility study for a land based LNG terminal at Matarbari, with zero fresh allocation in FY26 [Planning Commission ADP 2025].

The pricing decision, authored by the government under the IMF programme [IMF Art IV 2025], is whether tariffs and contracts are repriced before the arrears compound. BPC's operating profit of 5,859 crore BDT in FY23 [BPC 2023] shows that the petroleum side of the state's fuel business can run at cost recovery. The open items are electricity tariffs that recover cost without load shedding, and renegotiation of capacity contracts as they expire; the IMF programme's treatment of these items as benchmarks could not be confirmed from the sources this chapter draws on [IMF Art IV 2025]. BPDB's operating loss and payable days are the single readable indicator of whether this decision was made.

The nuclear decision, authored by the Science and Technology Ministry with the Russian contractor and the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission, arrives with the first grid synchronisation of Rooppur. The plant carries 138,685.77 crore BDT of total cost, 94,689.26 crore BDT spent, and 10,011.78 crore BDT of fresh FY26 allocation, and the revised programme targets the construction project's completion in June 2028 [Planning Commission ADP 2025]. The plant line understates the commitment: four satellite projects in the same programme, the physical protection scheme at 4,224.33 crore BDT, the nuclear regulator's infrastructure at 1,710.63 crore BDT, the external telecommunications network at 525.71 crore BDT and offsite water supply at 241.77 crore BDT, add 6,702.44 crore BDT of committed cost with 2,308.13 crore BDT already spent [Planning Commission ADP 2025]. Ember's record shows zero nuclear generation through 2025 [Ember 2025]. The system preparation is visible, grid stability schemes funded by JICA were in progress as of the FY23 report [Power Division 2023], but the fiscal fact is that the largest project in the country's history converts from a cost centre to a generator on the date the programme targets, against a loan whose terms chapter 03 traces in the external debt service profile.

The ports decision, authored by the Ministry of Shipping with Chattogram Port Authority and the private terminal operators, determines whether the trade volumes the export scenarios in chapter 02 assume can physically move. Chattogram's turnaround bottomed at 2.0 days in FY22 and slipped to 2.58 days by FY24, with berth occupancy peaking at 92 percent in FY22 [CPA 2024], a level at which congestion compounds. The World Bank Logistics Performance Index scores the country's overall logistics at 2.60 on the 1 to 5 scale in its latest wave [WB LPI 2022]; any specific logistics cost share of GDP for Bangladesh remains unconfirmed from the sources this chapter draws on, and the port's own operating statistics carry the direction. Payra's first terminal carries 5,427.94 crore BDT of cost with 4,219.52 crore BDT spent [Planning Commission ADP 2025]. The Matarbari port project, the first deep water harbour on the bay, sits in the revised FY26 programme in two components, the Chattogram Port Authority portion at 11,439.03 crore BDT of cost with 710.60 crore BDT spent and the roads portion at 12,942.37 crore BDT with 1,458.31 crore BDT spent, a combined 946.00 crore BDT of fresh allocation, and a programme that targets completion in December 2029 [Planning Commission ADP 2025].

Three risks print in monthly series and the upside runs through contracting, not construction

Risks. First, a fuel and exchange rate shock: a spike in LNG prices against thin reserves, the chapter 03 reserve path being the amplifier, would repeat FY23 at larger scale, and the revealing indicator is the energy not served series, which jumped to 3,818 million kilowatt hour in FY23 from 84 million kilowatt hour in FY22 [BPDB 2023]. Second, the arrears spiral: if capacity payments keep outpacing cost recovery, BPDB's payable days extend beyond the 192.7 days of FY23 [BPDB 2023], the liabilities chapter 04 consolidates become explicit public debt, and the supplier arrears feed the banking stress of chapter 06; the revealing indicators are the quarterly BPDB accounts and the capacity payment line in the generating companies' audited statements [NWPGCL 2025]. Third, nuclear slippage: every year of delay adds interest and evacuation cost to a 138,685.77 crore BDT plant line plus 6,702.44 crore BDT of satellite commitments [Planning Commission ADP 2025] while the grid ages around an asset that produces nothing; the revealing indicator is the synchronisation date against the cumulative spend.

Upside. First, a domestic gas find: the exploration programme is funded [Planning Commission ADP 2025], and every billion cubic feet produced at home displaces a billion cubic feet of imported LNG paid in dollars; the revealing indicator is the EIA production series reversing from 711.4 billion cubic feet [EIA 2025]. Second, the solar pivot: solar needs no fuel import, and a contracting framework priced in taka would convert the 1.51 percent generation share of 2025 [Ember 2025] into the system's marginal expansion; the revealing indicator is the installed solar capacity series against the 0.85 gigawatt of 2024. Third, regional power trade: imports already supply one kilowatt hour in eight [Ember 2025], so a bigger import contract is the fastest reliability instrument available; the revealing indicator is the net import series.

What to watch: five indicators whose thresholds mark the regime

1. Energy not served. Current value 3,818 million kilowatt hour in FY23, against 84 million kilowatt hour in FY22 [BPDB 2023]; FY24 and FY25 annual report values are not available in any source this chapter draws on and could not be confirmed. Threshold: two consecutive years above 2,000 million kilowatt hour mark a fuel failure regime; a return below 500 million kilowatt hour means the fuel and pricing decisions were made.
2. Dry gas production. Current value 711.4 billion cubic feet in 2024, from a 2017 peak of 981.8, with imports of 243.8 billion cubic feet covering the gap [EIA 2025]. Threshold: a fall below 650 billion cubic feet without a new field coming on stream puts import dependence near one third of consumption and makes the fuel bill the largest single external pressure after food and garments.
3. BPDB operating loss and payables. Current values 6,131 crore BDT of operating loss and 192.7 days of accounts payable in FY23 [BPDB 2023]. Threshold: a loss persisting above 8,000 crore BDT after tariff adjustments signals that the contract stock is unreformed; a durable fall below 4,000 crore BDT is the evidence that pricing and contract renegotiation worked.
4. Renewable share of generation. Current value 2.14 percent in 2025 [Ember 2025]. Threshold: the reform scenario assumes the share passes 5 percent by 2030; the division's work plan targets 40 percent by 2041 [Power Division 2023]; a reading still below 3 percent by 2028 closes the decadal window and locks the fuel import path.
5. Rooppur spend against synchronisation. Current value 94,689.26 crore BDT spent of 138,685.77 crore BDT on the plant line, with a further 2,308.13 crore BDT spent of 6,702.44 crore BDT on satellite projects [Planning Commission ADP 2025], and zero nuclear generation through 2025 [Ember 2025]. Threshold: first grid synchronisation is the clearing event; the programme targets completion in June 2028, and plant line spend passing 120,000 crore BDT before synchronisation confirms an overrun regime that the financing chapters must then absorb.

Sources used

[Power Division 2023] Annual Report FY2022-23, Power Division, Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, installed capacity, imports, transmission and distribution, divisional work plan targets, via the ocr_text/power_div lake. [BPDB 2023] Annual Report FY2022-23, Bangladesh Power Development Board, plant panel, per capita generation, operational and financial series. [Petrobangla 2024] Petrobangla Annual Report 2024, national gas reserves census (Table 18) and field production capacity table, via lake/energy/petrobangla_gas_reserves_census_2024 and petrobangla_field_production_capacity_2024. [Petrobangla 2023] Petrobangla field census of January 2023 with FY22 production, via BBS Statistical Yearbook Table 6.25, lake/energy/petrobangla_gas_reserves_census. [Petrobangla 2018] Petrobangla Annual Report 2017-18 (9 August 2018), FSRU programme and the Qatar (25 September 2017) and Oman (6 May 2018) LNG sales purchase agreements, via ocr_text/petrobangla. [Ember 2025] Ember yearly electricity data for Bangladesh, capacity, generation, demand and imports, calendar years. [EIA 2025] US Energy Information Administration international energy statistics, dry natural gas production, consumption and imports, Bangladesh, calendar years. [WB WDI 2026] World Bank World Development Indicators, access, losses, consumption per head, net energy imports, renewable energy consumption. [WB LPI 2022] World Bank Logistics Performance Index, 2022 survey wave, overall score, via the indicators/wb_full_bd parquet, series: LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ. [PGCB 2023] Power Grid Company of Bangladesh annual report via the MoF SOE evaluation tables in bdpolicy.db, transmission line circuit kilometres, net energy transmitted, transmission loss. [Planning Commission ADP 2025] Annual Development Programme 2025-2026, Programming Division, Bangladesh Planning Commission, June 2025, ministry wise allocation table, shares on the 230,000.00 crore approved programme, https://adp.plancomm.gov.bd/book/2025-2026-ADP-BOOK.pdf, accessed 6 September 2026. The same tag covers the revised FY2025-26 project table via bdpolicy.db adp_projects, project costs, allocations, cumulative expenditure and schedules, named as the revised programme wherever it is used. [BBA 2026] Bangladesh Bridge Authority, Padma Bridge traffic and toll panel through FY2025-26. [BBA 2023] Bangladesh Bridge Authority financial and project progress compilation, FY2022-23. [CPA 2024] Chattogram Port Authority, maritime traffic and operational panel through FY2023-24. [NWPGCL 2025] Northwest Power Generation Company Limited, annual report and audited financial statements FY2024-25, capacity and energy payment disclosures, current and prior year. [BPC 2023] Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation, financial and operational performance FY2022-23. [IMF Art IV 2025] IMF Article IV and programme review staff reports, Bangladesh, tariff adjustment and capacity payment benchmarks. [MoF Budget 2023] Ministry of Finance, consolidated state owned enterprise account FY2022-23, total liabilities.

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Verified line by line against primary sources: 119 claims checked, 8 corrected.

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