Explore
Institutions
Bank Watch: scheduled banks tracked on stability metrics.
Parliament Watch: members and their activity.
Government Watch: the executive, tracked over time.
University Watch: the higher-education system, tracked.
NGO Watch: civil society and development NGOs, tracked.
Development Partner Watch: the donors, tracked.
Industry Association Watch: the apex chambers, tracked.
Early warning
The LDC 2029 graduation monitor.
The national early-warning board across hazards.
Early warning for the haor flood basin.
The multi-hazard exposure atlas, by district.
Where hazards compound across the same places.
A priority index ranking places by combined risk.
Cropland exposed to flood, heat, and salinity.
The bank distress watch: stress signals across banks.
The disaster ledger: events and losses over time.
ব্যাংকিং চাপ
Macro-financial
State
crisis
Score
97.0
As of
2026-07-22
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 29.21 to 44.86 (80% interval, coverage validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability.
The detector's composite score replayed at monthly point-in-time snapshots, with labeled historical episodes shaded. Where the line crosses elevated or warning inside a shaded band, that is an in-sample hit; before the band, a lead-time signal.
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross NPL ratio | 30.6% | - | 1.00 | 2025-12-31 |
banking: Gross NPL ratio 30.6% (as of 2025-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. Bands anchored to supervisory NPL stress thresholds (5 / 8 / 10 / 15 percent). Forecast (naive, 15 obs): 31.4% in +3 steps; 80% interval [29.2%, 44.9%] (coverage validated at 67%). P(crosses the warning line within +3) = 100% P(crosses the crisis line) = 100% Interval coverage validated; these are band-crossing likelihoods of the indicator against its benchmark line, not a validated crisis probability.