Education underinvestment [short]
শিক্ষায় কম ব্যয়
Human development
state
warning
score
83.3
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 1.84 to 2.47 (indicative range, interval coverage not validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education spending (% of GDP) | 2.0% | - | 1.00 | 2024-12-31 |
Notes
education_spend_low: Public education spending (percent of GDP) 2.0% (as of 2024-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. Bands anchored to the UNESCO Education 2030 benchmark of 4 to 6 percent of GDP. Forecast (naive, 38 obs): 2.1% in +3 steps; indicative range [1.8%, 2.5%] (interval coverage not validated, measured 56%). median trend reaches the warning line in about +1 step(s) Indicative trajectory, not a validated crisis probability.