Diabetes prevalence [short]
ডায়াবেটিস
Public health
state
warning
score
71.9
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 18.66 to 18.84 (indicative range, interval coverage not validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| who diabetes prevalence agestd | 17.91 | - | 1.00 | 2022-12-31 |
Notes
diabetes_prevalence: Diabetes prevalence (% adults 18+ (age-standardized)) 17.9% (as of 2022-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. IDF Diabetes Atlas 10th edition (2021): global age-standardized comparative prevalence = 10.5% (adults 20-79, UN world population standard); SEA region = ~9.6-9.8% in 2021, projected 13.2% by 2050. Bands set: calm <8% (below all major regio Forecast (local_linear_trend, 33 obs): 18.8% in +3 steps; indicative range [18.7%, 18.8%] (interval coverage not validated, measured 43%). median trend reaches the warning line in about +1 step(s) Indicative trajectory, not a validated crisis probability.