Cardiovascular disease [short]
হৃদরোগের বোঝা
Public health
state
elevated
score
52.4
as of
2026-06-08
"Indicative" means no validated crisis-prediction skill: the labelled-episode record is too thin to score a crisis probability, so the page shows the benchmark-anchored state and (where available) the forecast trajectory only, never a crisis probability.
Forward outlook
Projected range over the next 3 steps: 14.05 to 17.18 (indicative range, interval coverage not validated).
Forecast from a damped-trend or unobserved-components model chosen by out-of-sample error against naive persistence; intervals from leave-future-out residuals. This is a statement about where the indicator is heading against its benchmark line, not a crisis probability. See Notes for the band-crossing detail.
Drivers
| Indicator | Value | z-score | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| who ncdmort3070 | 18.10 | - | 1.00 | 2021-12-31 |
Notes
cvd_burden: Cardiovascular disease (% probability of dying age 30-70 from CVD/cancer/diabetes/CRD) 18.1% (as of 2021-12-31); level-anchored thresholds. WHO SDG 3.4.1 (NCDMORT3070): global 2015 baseline ~15.3%, global 2019 actual ~14.0%; one-third reduction target ~10.2%; SEARO 2019 actual 21.6%, SEARO 2010 baseline 23.4%, SEARO one-third reduction target ~15.6%. Bands: calm <10% (SDG targe Forecast (local_linear_trend, 22 obs): 15.8% in +3 steps; indicative range [14.1%, 17.2%] (interval coverage not validated, measured 64%). Indicative trajectory, not a validated crisis probability.